As PDP Picks It's Presidential Candidate - My Predictions Based On 10 Nigeria Common Sense Facts Says Daniel Ogolo.



By Daniel Ogolo

Today in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, the PDP will elect its Presidential candidate from 13 aspirants.

Because the main task and only task is to dislodge president Buhari, I have drawn the 10 points that should see the winner emerge.

COMMON SENSE 1: A CANDIDATE THAT IS ACCEPTABLE BY THE 'ALMAJIRI' - COMMON NORTHERNERS
PDP should focus more on an aspirant that the common Northerners will accept and less on one whom the Southerners will accept. Simple reasoning being that its much easier to convince southerners that the goal is simply to change Buhari than to convince common northerners that we need a better country. They see people with national appeal as 'not truly their own'

Read also : No president in the world can be as irresponsible as a Nigerian president Says Bishop Matthew Kukah

This common sense counts against aspirants with national appeal like Atiku, Saraki and co with 'national appeal'.

COMMON SENSE 2: A CANDIDATE NOT SEEN AS ANOTHER RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALIST
While the southerners can be more understanding on why they should vote any side, they will however protest with their votes at the emergence of any candidate who is perceived as an extreme fundamentalist.

To them, what's the use removing one extremist and putting another? Won't it be better to complete the Buhari suffering for another 4 years than to give another 8 years to another extremist?

This point greatly weakens Kwankwaso. The way he treated non-Muslims and southerners during his tenure as Governor will count against him.

COMMON SENSE 3: FOCUS LESS ON MIDDLE BELT ASPIRANTS
Its still seen as a term for 'Core North' so if we go by that, middle belt candidates like Saraki, Jang and David Mark may not win Buhari - Their votes are weaker in number and Core Northerners will not trust them with their votes.

COMMON SENSE 4
A CANDIDATE THAT APPEALS TO EXTREME MUSLIMS
There are 3 types of Muslims: normal Muslims, extreme Muslims and fundamental Muslims.
While you may understand the normal Muslims who are like city guys, the extreme Muslims abhors many things modern while the fundamental Muslim will like to banish all other people and their cultures.

The closer the candidate appear to these Mosque addicts, the better. In Nigeria, the Mosque doesn't come bigger than the Sokoto Caliphate.

While Kwankwaso is seen as an extremist, Dankwabo is seen as a good extreme Muslim, while Aminu Tambuwal's closeness with the Uthman Dan Fodio linage and the Sokoto caliphate makes him score 10/10.

COMMON SENSE 5: A CANDIDATE WITH MORE GOVERNORS BACKERS.
Take it or leave it, Governors are a big say in Nigeria's politics today. They made sure GEJ lost. They run things here, that is why presidents bend their hard line stance to accommodate Governors.

PDP Governors may feel easier working with a colleague, as they will negotiate terms easier with their colleague. The distrust with 'Abuja politicians' will come to play, it always does.

This counts good for Tanbuwal and Dankwabo

Read also : No single person can influence the outcome of the National Convention, Governor Wike assured.

COMMON SENSE 6: ASPIRANT ABLE TO DELIVER HIS OWN STATE
The least a candidate is expected to do is to be able to deliver his own state.

This counts good for Tambuwal, Saraki, maybe Atiku to a certain degree.

COMMON SENSE 7: ASPIRANT THAT WILL NOT EASILY BE WORKED AGAINST BY SECURITY OPERATIVES.
Security operatives will play a very big role in 2019 election. So a candidate whose interest will not be trampled upon by security operatives stands a good chance.

They have previously worked against Saraki and to an extent, Atiku, that shows they can do it again to them. Remember also that 100% of our security chiefs are Muslims, so a candidate with a core Muslim appeal gets the edge on this one.

COMMON SENSE 8: ASPIRANT WITH LOADS OF CASH
Try as we may to discourage this, money still plays a big role in our polity, so PDP should know this and present a candidate with loads of it.

Atiku and to an extent Saraki and Tambuwal plus Kwankwaso readilly comes to mind.

COMMON SENSE 9: ASPIRANT WITH JUDICIAL SUPPORT.
Aside GEJ, every other candidate that lost ended up in the courts. While its very difficult to upturn a presidents victory in Africa via the courts of law, interest may come to play. More so, this time it will be a fight between 2 Muslim brothers, so the judges may be less fearful.

While I don't know the acceptance of the candidates by the Supreme Court judges, 2 things should be noted:
1. For the first time, we have a southern CJN.
2. Some politicians, especially Governors influence some judges. The interest of such politicians should be added to the equation.

COMMON SENSE 10: WHERE WIKE'S INTEREST LIES
Things have quickly changed. Suddenly governor Wike has a big say in PDP. To an extent, he can make or mar PDP. You cant rule this out.

Seems governor Wike has a soft spot for Tambuwal.

MY TAKE
Looking at the above scenarios, I have to say that the aspirant that has more likelihood to defeat President Buhari yet remains acceptable to the South is . . . .
AMINU WAZIRI TAMBUWAL.

Comments